The Fishbowl

NBA Geeks

Picking up from where GuacamOLI left off, a job as an NBA team analyst is the Mt. Everest for this jock poser who's a true geek at heart. It's nothing new, it's being done by experts and amateurs alike. I remember reading an article on ESPN The Mag of how Gregg Popovich and the Spurs use game analysis software and statistics to help them scout their opponents and even study their own players' strengths and weaknesses. They watch and re-watch stacks of game tape (with 30 teams and 82 regular season games each, that makes 1,230 games) in order to break down every offensive and defensive play.

Imagine a defender facing up, one-on-one, against Kobe or Dwyane Wade in the dying seconds of a tied game. He is trying his best to avoid becoming the fodder for this superstar's cannon, for all to see, repeatedly, in an ESPN highlight reel. Through a strange brew of math, a keen sense of observation, and innate basketball instinct, this hapless defender could figure out, up to a certain level of confidence, the offensive player's next move---where he'd likely take his next shot---and whether the best ploy is to force him to go to his left or his right where a secondary defender would be waiting. The defender would make his decision, he'd take his chances based on a number, a probability, and let the chips fall as they may. He would gamble, yes, but he would do so with a loaded die. Instead of putting up Xs and Os, and telling his players, "Ok, Chito, this is you, Joey, this is you", while holding a magnetic clipboard, a coach could mouth off numbers like, "61% going to the left, 45% to the right, 36% at the 3-pt line, 28% fade-away jump shot, 16% chance he'll pass up the final shot and give it to an open teammate etc., etc., ".

In the pros where games are played at blinding speed, it's a tug-of-war between instinct and reason, while instinct wins 3 out of 5 times, the numbers, at least, help put some method in the madness. Coaches like Don Nelson, formerly of Dallas Mavericks, relied on numbers to decide whether or not his team would double-team a player of Tim Duncan's caliber on the low post. Even NBA.com puts up players' efficiency ratings*, both in aid of fantasy leagues and sports analysts, so they can say, with some amount of conviction, why they think so and so is better than this or that player.



Notes:

* EFI : [(points + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) - ((FGA - FGM) + (FTA - FTM) + TO)] / Games

posted by LK @ 9:00 PM